A few years ago, while getting into the groove of working full-time in finance, I had a question emerge in my mind. What would happen if I could purchase the S&P 500 at the exact high every single year?

As we close out another year & start the next, investors listening to the news will hear plenty of individuals across the industry give pitches of their expected year-end target. Sure, it is smart to have an idea on where you think things could go as a whole. Does, and should this include a “price target” for the S&P 500?

Now lets’ try to open our eyes as best we can. Sure, today is a time filled with uncertainty, but I’ve been reading about some much more uncertain times. This perspective has brought me to the conclusion of feeling blessed being born in todays’ world.

Casinos exist to satisfy fantasies of winning large amounts of money in a quick way. But that is all it is, a fantasy. At the end of the day, they are businesses built to make a profit on probabilities over time. The probabilities are just high enough in the games so people are willing to take the risk of losing their money for the potential payoff of winning big. Now, I will not make a case for or against this business practice. I will identify the similarities I see between how a casino works, and how the financial industry drives the public to treat this industry. There is one huge difference though, the financial industry is a quote “casino” where it may be possible to beat the dealer over enough time.

After the Banking Panics that essentially lasted in ebb’s and flows from a few years after the Civil War through 1907, the Federal Government was looking into ways to protect the financial system from “runs on the banks”. What is this? It is when enough people withdraw their money that the bank all of a sudden is forced to sell assets (aka their loans) at fire sale prices just to get those demanding their money, their money. This created a terrible dynamic over those 40+ years where the banking system was losing trust with the public.

The title of this article should make sense to all, but I have realized working in the financial industry that there are too many people who invest with the opposite philosophy. How can there be less risk when a stock is going down? Aren’t you losing money when a stock goes down? Well, this is true if you are in need of the money in the near future. If so, this article is not for you. I am writing this for the people who are willing to invest money today for the coming year/years, not months/weeks.

Drawing out past performance into the future can be a very dangerous practice. The winners eventually become over owned and when there is even a sign of weakness, those areas people find safe can become the most dangerous. Remember it works until it doesn’t, and I am far from a crystal ball so I have no clue on when it will take place. If I did “know”, I hope you would run as far away as you can. All I know is that someday it will take place. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it tends to rhyme.

Try your best to learn about what you own before looking at what the price is today. Paying attention solely to price will bring emotion into the decision made, and if you have read my previous articles then you would know that emotion is what brings some of the worst investment decisions if acted on.

To get away from all of the noise out there, I wanted to highlight an event that took place from Thursday-Saturday this past weekend. In my opinion it is one of the most significant events that has taken place in years and arguably in decades.

Over this past weekend, I went on a vacation to one of the most historical cities within our country, Boston. I went there with my family and was initially going to watch America’s “Favorite Sport”, Baseball. Although the Red Sox took a beating from the Rangers on Saturday, it was an amazing experience to watch a game in the oldest professional baseball stadium, Fenway Park.